Posted by: Jeremy | October 6, 2010

A look at the big four


Like each of his rotation mates, Cecil had his share of highs and lows in 2010

When Brett Cecil was in the process of getting lit by the Rays a few weeks back, I found myself thinking how nice his ERA would be if he could subtract five-or-so horrible starts off his season stats. Then I realized just about every starting pitcher would do major favours for their numbers if they could do the same. I was clearly onto something.

Below, I’ve got the Jays’ four big starters — Cecil, Shaun Marcum, Ricky Romero and Brandon Morrow — and taken a look at how they shape up with their worst five starts out of the mix. To make it a little more interesting, I also erased the top five appearances from each as well, to give a better idea of what they’re like when they’re “average”. Give it a look:

Brett Cecil

Season stats: 15-7, 4.22, 172 2/3 innings, 175 hits, 87 runs (81 earned), 54 walks and 117 strikeouts in 28 starts.

Minus top and bottom five: 10-4, 3.36, 118 innings, 115 hits, 48 runs (44 earned), 38 walks and 74 strikeouts in 18 starts.

Minus bottom five: 15-4, 2.82, 153 1/3 innings, 131 hits, 52 runs (48 earned), 47 walks and 103 strikeouts in 23 starts.

Shaun Marcum

Season stats: 13-8, 3.64, 195 1/3 innings, 181 hits, 84 runs (79 earned), 43 walks and 165 strikeouts in 31 starts.

Minus top and bottom five: 8-3, 3.04, 136 innings, 126 hits, 49 runs (46 earned), 29 walks and 109 strikeouts in 21 starts.

Minus bottom five: 13-3, 2.51, 172 innings, 142 hits, 52 runs (48 earned), 35 walks and 144 strikeouts in 26 starts.

Romero topped the 200 inning mark in just his second season

Ricky Romero

Season stats: 14-9, 3.73, 210 innings, 189 hits, 98 runs (87 earned), 82 walks and 174 strikeouts in 32 starts.

Minus top and bottom five: 10-5, 3.20, 154 2/3 innings, 126 hits, 59 runs (55 earned), 61 walks and 119 strikeouts in 22 starts.

Minus bottom five: 14-5, 2.60, 193 2/3 innings, 155 hits, 63 runs (56 earned), 69 walks and 150 strikeouts in 27 starts.

Brandon Morrow

Season stats: 10-7, 4.49, 146 2/3 innings, 136 hits, 76 runs (73 earned), 66 walks and 178 strikeouts in 26 starts.

Minus top and bottom five: 6-3, 4.07, 90 2/3, 91 hits, 44 runs (41 earned), 42 walks and 115 strikeouts in 16 starts.

Minus bottom five: 10-3, 3.08, 128 2/3 innings, 107 hits, 47 runs (44 earned), 50 walks and 157 strikeouts in 21 starts.

Out of the big four, Romero’s ERA in his five worst starts (17.08) was the highest, but it affected his season numbers the least because of his team-high 210 innings. Morrow (1.41) and Cecil (1.40) saw their ERAs drop the most with their worst five appearances out of the picture, with Romero and Marcum both dropping 1.13. With both the top and bottom five out, Cecil’s ERA dropped the most (0.86 — to 3.36 from 4.22), followed by Marcum (0.60), Romero (0.53) and Morrow (0.42).

Of course, a pitcher’s value is measured by much more than just ERA, but I figured a look at this might be a bit interesting. Regardless of how you look at it, I’ve got them all winning at least 25 games in 2011.

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