Posted by: Jeremy | October 28, 2009

Phillies in seven (I’d never pick the Yankees)


NLCS Dodgers Phillies Baseball

Cliff Lee faces CC Sabathia in tonight's Game 1

With all the excitement surrounding the start of the NBA season, I’d forgotten the World Series gets underway tonight. The Yankees and Phillies get Game 1 going at eight, with CC Sabathia (19-8, 3.37 and 3-0 1.19 in the playoffs) dueling Cliff Lee (14-13, 3.22 and 2-0, 0.74) on the hill at Yankee Stadium.

I predicted New York to fall first to the Twins and then to Angels, knowing full well they’d probably win, which they did easily in both instances. But that’s what you do when you hate the Yankees. This time around, I have the Phillies in seven, though I actually do think they have a realistic shot at taking it, not only because the Yankees have a recent history of choking in the postseason.

Lee, who the Phillies picked up instead of Roy Halladay at the deadline, went on to prove his 22-3 2008 campaign was no fluke. Like Doc, he pitches to contact, which means he gives up his share of hits (245 in 231.2 innings this year), but walks few and keeps it in the ballpark to limit any damage. Aside from Lee, Pedro Martinez and Cole Hamels round out Philly’s three-man rotation with J.A. Happ, who led Phillies starters with a 2.93 ERA this season, ready to come in if any run into trouble. Please, though, no Brad Lidge in games that are within eight runs. I’m begging you, Charlie Manuel.

Of course, Philadelphia’s real boost comes from their offense, which led the National League with 224 homers. The Phillies have their own version of Murderers Row in Chase Utley (31 bombs in ’09), Ryan Howard (45), Jayson “The Monster” Werth (36) and Raul Ibanez (34), plus a pair of speedsters in Jimmy Rollins and Shane Victorino to get on and wreak havoc on the basepaths. Yes, I know, I know — the Yankees have their own set of mashers (speaking of which, Eric Hinske was activated), but the Phillies are the World Champs. The World F—— Champions!

Like in every series, I’m looking to see good baseball more than anything. Not-so-fun fact: The last time the World Series went to as many as six games was 2003, when the Marlins beat the Yankees behind some gutty Josh Beckett pitching. Let’s play seven this year boys!


Responses

  1. this is tough, but i really think the yankees will get it done… jeter needs another ring

  2. Ummm I think Jeter has it all already. I think Jimmy Rollins needs another ring.

  3. yo i dont think they make rings big enough for ryan howard

  4. Alright. I’m home sick today and I did a fairly in-depth (5 minute) analysis of the World Series and I’ll tell you, it doesn’t look too pretty for Phillies fans.

    Phillies:
    Runs Scored VS Run Allowed: +0.68
    Total Hitter Value Over Replacement Player: 277.3
    Total Pitcher Value Over Replacement Player: 168.8
    Defensive Efficiency: .694
    Wins: 93
    MLB Road Record Rank: 1st (Tied with LAA)
    Interleague Record: 6-12

    Yankees:
    Runs Scored VS Run Allowed: +1
    Total Hitter Value Over Replacement Player: 292.1
    Total Pitcher Value Over Replacement Player: 236.2
    Defensive Efficiency: .697
    Wins: 103
    MLB Road Record Rank: 3rd
    Interleague Record: 10-8

    Man, this was worse than I thought. The ONLY advantage the Phillies have is that they were 5 games better on the road than the Yankees, but the Yankees were still 3rd best in the ENTIRE majors. The Phils were below .500 in interleague play and have an alarmingly weak picthing staff. I was actually really shocked by that VORP total. The Yankees play slightly better defense than the Phils. The Yanks also won 10 more fucking regular season games in an arguably much harder division and/or league.

    If the Phillies do win this, it will be because of a) luck and b) the fact that stats are considerably less applicable to a 4-7 game stretch (ie. luck again). Get out your rabbit feet.

  5. Let the boys play!

    Interesting analysis, and one that has lots of validity. There’s no question the Yankees were a better team over the course of the season — you can tell by simply looking at their record, too — but I think baseball is based more so on matchups than any other sport, and those are more relevant in a best of seven series, if you ask me. That said, the Yankees are still the odds-on favourite to win, if you ask most people. I just don’t have it in me to pick them.

  6. I’m going with the Phillies too but really for no other reason than because I hate the Yankees. But, this is definitely the Yankees biggest test of the post season so far and I think the Phillies have it in then.

  7. first, rick sutcliffe is calling it as play guy. HE SUCKS ASS!!! back in ALCS, he was all NYY all the time. if the commentator goes one way or the other, it usually shows which team they work for. I thought the play offs were impartial.
    now, I still want to see NYY in Toronto june 5 weekend and sit behind home plate. I want to give that piece of crap posada an earfull all weekend…..and you know I’m pretty damn good at it! and all while waving a jesse carlson jersey.
    but for the game, I will deviate from my AL loyalty. Go Phillies. A-ROD is still a joke. never trust a guy with purple lips!!! Philly’s outfield is better. their infields are equal. the pitching is a toss off because both parks are pop fly home run parks!
    PHILLY IN SIX, LIKE THE OTHER PEOPLE WHO DON’T KNOW CLAIM……but don’t hold me to it!

  8. Don’t you get the FOX broadcast as well? That’s the one I prefer, despite Joe Buck and Tim McCarver. I just like the overall presentation a lot better.

    Should be a fun series though…go Phillies!

  9. I’d like to get excited about the Series, but for God’s sake its basically November. Baseball is done for me.
    That said, I have the Yanks in six, and A-rod’s relationship with Kate Hudson at another three months. Longer if she starts bodybuilding.

  10. I’d like to get excited about the Series, but for God’s sake it’s almost November. Baseball is over for me.

    That said, I’m saying Yanks in six, and A-Rod’s relationship with Kate Hudson for three more months. More if she takes up bodybuilding.

  11. Yeah, I guess A-Rod is keeping his shemales exclusively on the side these days…

  12. Truthfully, baseball tends to be the one sport I get less excited about as the season goes along. I think a certain team I like has something to do with that. But hey, nothing beats that feeling in April.

  13. […] win sets Philly on the road to winning in seven, just as I predicted Wednesday. But like an architect switching career paths to city planning, why […]

  14. […] win sets Philly on the road to winning in seven, just as I predicted Wednesday. But like an architect switching career paths to city planning, why […]

  15. Yanks in 6. Yeah, baby!!!!


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